AI/SHIELD · BRIEFING
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AI Shield · Threat briefing

The playbook is information.

Coordinated AI-powered operations against Armenia's European turn.

ASOIA · 2026–2027 · CSIN × AIISA

01 · The stakes

Armenia is being tested.

March 2025 — parliament passes the EU Integration Act. June 2026 — a defining parliamentary election. The Kremlin treats Armenia as "the next Moldova" — with an unprecedented eight-month information-operation lead time.

02 · The gap

18%

of Armenians can identify a fabricated story.

Cogent Social Sciences, 2024

No actor inside Armenia proactively analyses coordinated AI campaigns. Fact-checking verifies single claims — operations analysis maps the whole campaign.

03 · Actor — Russia

Matryoshka & Storm-1516

  • 60+ AI-fabricated videos targeting PM Pashinyan.
  • First audio deepfake of an Armenian PM — June 2025: 280,000 views in 36 hours, 94% synthetic (TrueMedia), debunked by CivilNet in 9 hours.
  • Storm-1516 — tested on Poland, Germany and France — reaches Armenia for the first time.

04 · Actor — Iran spillover

21.9M

views of forged stories on X since February 2026.

Fake CNN, Reuters and Bloomberg branding. 100,000 ethnic Armenians in Iran sit at the immediate edge of the shock.

05 · Actor — Azerbaijan

Permanent operations

Narratives around the constitutional debate and the peace treaty — hitting the government, the opposition and the European turn at the same time.

06 · The parallel

Armenia stands where Poland stood.

Poland's road from target to exporter of resilience, 2014–2026. The Armenian "Ukrainisation" frame echoes the "NATO means war" frame deployed against Poland. The difference: Armenia has eight months.

07 · The response

Two tracks. One cascade.

Track A — 12–15 analysts trained as trainers. Track B — they train 30–36 media and CSO staff, without us in the room. If AIISA can train the next cohort alone, the transfer worked.

08 · What gets built

Counted, not declared.

  • Certified Armenian analysts publishing their own reports.
  • An open Toolkit — Polish, English, Armenian · CC BY-NC 4.0.
  • An analytical report to Armenia's MFA, parliament and the EU Delegation.
  • Capacity carried into NATO SPS 2027.

Close

Defend the turn.

AI Shield — information resilience for Armenia's European decade.

CSIN × AIISA · contact@caucasian.network

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