AI/SHIELD · BRIEFING
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AI Shield · Threat briefing

The playbook is information.

Coordinated AI-powered operations against Armenia's European turn.

ASOIA · 2026-2027 · CSIN × AIISA

01 · The stakes

Armenia is being tested.

March 2025, parliament passes the EU Integration Act. June 2026, a defining parliamentary election. The Kremlin treats Armenia as "the next Moldova", with an unprecedented eight-month information-operation lead time.

02 · The gap

18%

of Armenians can identify a fabricated story.

Cogent Social Sciences, 2024

No actor inside Armenia proactively analyses coordinated AI campaigns. Fact-checking verifies single claims, operations analysis maps the whole campaign.

03 · Actor, Russia

Matryoshka & Storm-1516

  • -60+ AI-fabricated videos targeting PM Pashinyan.
  • -First audio deepfake of an Armenian PM, June 2025: 280,000 views in 36 hours, 94% synthetic (TrueMedia), debunked by CivilNet in 9 hours.
  • -Storm-1516, tested on Poland, Germany and France, reaches Armenia for the first time.

04 · Actor, Iran spillover

21.9M

views of forged stories on X since February 2026.

Fake CNN, Reuters and Bloomberg branding. 100,000 ethnic Armenians in Iran sit at the immediate edge of the shock.

05 · Actor, Azerbaijan

Permanent operations

Narratives around the constitutional debate and the peace treaty - hitting the government, the opposition and the European turn at the same time.

06 · The parallel

Armenia stands where Poland stood.

Poland's road from target to exporter of resilience, 2014-2026. The Armenian "Ukrainisation" frame echoes the "NATO means war" frame deployed against Poland.

07 · The response

Two tracks. One cascade.

Track A, 12-15 analysts trained as trainers. Track B, they train 30-36 media and CSO staff, without us in the room. If AIISA can train the next cohort alone, the transfer worked.

08 · What gets built

Counted, not declared.

  • -Certified Armenian analysts publishing their own reports.
  • -An open Toolkit, Polish, English, Armenian · CC BY-NC 4.0.
  • -An analytical report to Armenia's MFA, parliament and the EU Delegation.
  • -Capacity carried into NATO SPS 2027.

Close

Defend the turn.

AI Shield, information resilience for Armenia's European decade.

CSIN × AIISA · contact@caucasian.network

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